MITCHELL, S.D. (MITCHELLNOW) USDA forecasts that in 2024 net farm income will drop 25.1% from 2023. That follows a 16% decline from 2022 to 2023. If those forecasts hold true, that marks the two largest drops in net farm income in history.
The reality is glaring. USDA’s net farm income forecast for 2024 is a $43 billion drop from 2023 to $116.1 billion. That is a 25.5% decline in just one year. What makes it even more jarring is that follows the 2023 net farm income figure, which saw a 16% drop from 2022. If USDA’s forecast holds true, that will mark the most significant two-year farm income decline in U.S. history.
As USDA showed in the June Grain Stocks report, farmers are still holding onto a lot of their 2023 crop. In fact, USDA thinks on-farm storage is the highest since the 1980s. The reason: as commodity prices fall, farmers are reluctant to sell below the cost of production. That means USDA’s 2023 net farm income forecast may be even worse than what it is today.